The payouts for the Kentucky Derby winner have been paltry over the past decade, with the median $2 win bet returning $12.80. The exotic wagers, on the other hand, have often yielded substantial payouts.
Half of the exactas — a wager requiring you to select the top two runners in order — have returned an average of $336.20 for a $2 wager. The median payout for a trifecta (when players pick the top three finishers in the correct order) has been $848.45 on a 50-cent ticket since 2013. The median superfecta (when players select the top four finishers in the correct order) has paid $15,643.65 on a $1 ticket over the past 10 years. Rich Strike, an 80-1 long shot, headlined a $321,500.10 payout in 2022.
To try to hit these monster payouts this year, we need to focus on horses that can withstand the pace and carry their speed the full 1¼ miles at Churchill Downs.
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There are seven front-runners in this iteration of the Kentucky Derby, leading me to believe there will be a fast pace early on. One of those front-runners, morning-line favorite Fierceness, drew an outside post, which will probably force him to expend a lot of energy to clear a full field of horses and get to the rail. Grand Mo The First, in post position No. 16, will have a similar challenge.
Dornoch, another front-runner, drew the No. 1 post and should be sent to the front no matter what, perhaps mitigating the curse of the inside post, which hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986. I am okay with tossing all the other front-runners from the exotics save for T O Password, who doesn’t have a defined running style after two career starts.
One other horse sure to be taken out of his comfort zone is Sierra Leone, a closer lining up in gate No. 2. His connections — as the owner, trainer and jockey are known — will have to choose between adopting a front-running style for the first time, or sitting back early and hoping they can navigate a perfect trip on the outside through a sea of horses. Neither is ideal, and that challenge will relegate Sierra Leone to a third- or fourth-place finish, in my opinion.
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Closer Catching Freedom, in gate No. 4, is in a similar predicament; however, he gets a stamina boost as a Tapit grandson, which should allow him to better withstand a hot pace early on.
Here’s how I would structure my trifecta and superfecta tickets:
I would use No. 7 Honor Marie, the horse I like to win this race, and No. 4 Catching Freedom at the front with No. 1 Dornoch, No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 3 Mystik Dan and No. 8 Just A Touch in the place and show spots.
If your bankroll permits, I’d expand the superfecta’s final slot to include the two horses from Japan — No. 10 T O Password and No. 11 Forever Young — plus No. 14 Endlessly, No. 15 Domestic Product and No. 16 Grand Mo The First.
This is how you would describe these exotic bets at the ticket window.
$1 trifecta using 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,2,3,8 for $8
50-cent trifecta using 4,7 with 1,2,3,8 with 4,7 for $4
50-cent trifecta using 1,2,3,8 with 4,7 with 4,7 for $4
Superfecta
$1 superfecta using 7 with 1,4,8 with 1,4,8 with 1,4,8 for $6
$1 superfecta using 7 with 1,4 with 1,4,8 with 1,8,10,11,16 for $12
If your bankroll allows: $1 superfecta using 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,2,3,8 with 1,2,3,8,10,11,14,15,16 for $64.00
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